A demographic study commissioned by the Mineola School District suggests that rising and proposed apartment complexes could lead to student influx in its schools over the next few years.
Babylon-based Educational Legacy Planning Group was tasked with conducting the overview of the district and Mineola, analyzing census data, student enrollment and apartment development.
The study sparked from a recent clash between the Mineola school and village boards during hearings on the recently-approved 266-unit Mineola Village Green apartment complex by Lalezarian Developers and a village-commissioned study that revealed more than 1,400 apartments could hit the area within the next few years.
“We are in the midst of several more projects in downtown Mineola,” School District Superintendent Dr. Michael Nagler said at last week’s school board meeting. “Each one has a different methodology for calculating how many students are going to come from each building. We wanted to be sure we had an independent entity look at everything.”
A Legacy demographer chronicled grade and attendance for Mineola schools from the 2010-11 school year to 2015-16 for the study. It analyzed state Health Department birth and death data from 2000-03 in Mineola and factored in migration reports from the IRS from 2000-11 and Census bureau information from 2005 to 2010.
Student/resident forecast models used by Legacy detailed mortality trends, distribution of population by age and gender, existing housing units and residential moving patterns.
“All of those data points were used in establishing a forecast model,” Legacy Executive Director Robert Hendriks said. “The model included how many people are moving in and leaving, reasons for moving in and leaving and what age they were.”
According to Hendriks, the 18-24-year-old group accounts for the most movement out of Mineola while the 25-39 age group is the biggest incoming residential cohort. Furthermore, the primary student enrollment increase is due to the “steady level of in-migration of young households and an increase of the number of households over age 70 that are leaving to make way for younger families.”
“The 18 to 24-year-old population is your number one export because they’re leaving here and going to urban centers and establishing careers,” Hendriks said. “We forecast that [Mineola will have] an increase in the number of houses over 70 that are aging out of their homes. That’s healthy for a community.”
The study suggests even if Mineola continues to grow in home construction, the pricing of existing home sales will be the main factor in affecting population and enrollment change.
“What we project is the migration of younger families coming into the district is going to counterbalance [aging families] leaving, even to the point of decreasing the median age,” Hendriks said. “It peaks at 70 and that’s when the wave begins. That is why [Mineola’s] enrollment will not increase much more.”
The Legacy study said the recently opened 275-unit Modera Mineola complex by Mill Creek Residential Trust and 315-unit 250 Old Country Road project, also by Lalezarian, would yield 50 school-aged children by 2020 and could bring at least 100 over the length of Legacy’s forecast. However, Hendriks said, the bulk of the students would have moved before reaching school-age but the influx could put pressure on Mineola’s pre-K program.
“You can never have too much information,” School Board President Christine Napolitano said. “We’re fortunate to have this solid data that we can use in the future.”
The Village Green would bring 25 children. The building could also usher 500 people into the district’s population forecast, Hendriks said.
“If we didn’t see these [apartments] coming, you’d probably have 1,000 fewer people in your community in 10 years,” Hendriks stated. “These housing projects are helping to keep [Mineola] healthy and keep your population steady.”
Mill Creek’s plan to build a 197-unit complex at 120 Searing Ave., home of the defunct Corpus Christi School, would bring 15 kids, according to Hendriks. The Bridge, a 12-story 148-unit luxury apartment complex, which has not been proposed to the village board, could also usher in 15 children.
“What you’re seeing in your community is cutting-edge,” Hendriks said of the apartments. “It’ll be highly unlikely to see these apartments remain unrented. [The school district] has the opportunity to have a captive audience for several years.”
