The settlement reached last month in a case alleging Republican gerrymandering in Nassau County is considered a landmark – the first case resolved after testing New York’s 2022 Voting Rights Act.
The law was intended to protect the vote of historically marginalized and disenfranchised communities in the county Legislature and the settlement reflected that goal. It also highlights the changing face of Nassau.
The revised map, to be used in this year’s county elections, includes six “majority-minority” districts where communities of color make up more than 50% of voters and one “Asian influence” district combining areas where the Asian-American population is growing. That’s about 37% of Nassau’s 19 legislative districts’ voters.
It replaces a map approved by the county Legislature in a party-line vote by Republicans, who held a 12-7 advantage in early 2023. That map created four “majority-minority” districts—about 21% of the districts’ voters.
The new map is more representative of Nassau’s population—at least for now. As of 2022, Nassau County’s estimated population was approximately 44% non-white.
But the equal representation may not last long as Nassau’s minority population appears to be growing.
State education department enrollment numbers for the 2023-2024 school year show that non-whites make up 60% of the school population, with whites accounting for only 40%, down from 54% 10 years before.
Latinos made up 29% of Nassau’s school population and Asians 19% in the 2023-2024 school year. This has major implications for the entire county.
The enrollment numbers do not account for students attending private schools and they only represent the school population, not the entire population of the county. But the trend appears to be clear.
Will this matter at the ballot box?
Nassau County Republican Committee Chairman Joseph Cairo said after the agreement was announced he believed the party would “maintain its majority” in the county Legislature because it “stands with voters.”
Cairo might be right. Voters in Nassau and New York City don’t appear to simply cast their ballots based on party affiliation or ethnicity.
In Nassau County, Republicans have consistently won elections despite Democrats holding a 100,000-voter lead in registered voters in recent years. That lead came down to 80,000 in November, with Democrats leading 385,603 to 306,252, with unaffiliated voters following with 277,756 voters.
Republicans currently hold all four county-wide seats, 12 of the 18 county Legislature seats, all eight Town of Oyster Bay seats, four of the seven North Hempstead seats, and six of the seven Town of Hempstead seats. With one exception, all are white.
State and county Democratic Committee Chairman Jay Jacobs said the redistricting settlement “would make a difference in county Legislature elections, calling it a tremendous victory for Nassau County.”
“Republican lawmakers drew a map to provide them with political advantages while disenfranchising communities of color throughout the county. This outcome sends a clear message: attempts to undermine our democratic principles will not be tolerated,” Jacobs said.
Under the settlement recently reached, the county’s Legislature’s new districts will take effect this fall and continue until 2032.
The question is: Will the county’s changing demographics make a difference in which party represents Nassau voters?
