Another massive disruption is coming to the American workforce. It will ripple through every community in America, especially car-centric suburbs like Long Island. It isn’t science fiction; the technology is fully in hand (“massive market penetration” by 2026 says Morgan Stanley). It’s being tested and rolled out slowly to build public trust and acceptance, and to give government agencies a chance to catch up and build appropriate regulations.
Self-driving vehicles are going to change so much. It seemed so distant until last spring when Google announced that its fleet of four dozen self-driving cars licensed to drive on California roads had logged over 1.7 million miles and had been involved in only 11 minor accidents, all caused by human drivers of other cars. Tesla announced software updates for current Model S cars that will allow limited autonomous driving capabilities, with more features to be unlocked in the future. (Click here to read Part II.)
Actually, if your car has the active cruise control and lane detection features that exist on some high-end models, there’s no technological reason why it can’t be programmed to operate autonomously at least some of the time.
By the end of next year, Veeo Systems will be actively testing a variety of vehicles, ranging from a two-seater to a 70-seat bus, in 30 U.S. cities. Apple and Uber are working on driverless cars.
“You’re not just paying for the car—you’re paying for the other dude in the car,” says Travis Kalanick, CEO of Uber. “When there’s no other dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle.”
And when that happens, car ownership as a concept withers away.
Some people will always want or need to own a car. Enough will not. Uber and other car-hiring operations will thrive. Millions working in auto repairs, loans, insurance, rental, parking and washing will not.
Truck driving is going away. Not overnight. Not this year or next, but before the next American President ends his or her first term, millions of jobs will start being phased out.
In 32 states, including our neighbors Pennsylvania and Vermont, truck driving is the single most common job. There are an estimated 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the U.S., and 5.2 million additional people employed in the trucking industry besides drivers. Think of all the restaurants and motels built around serving the needs of truckers. Truck driving is also one of the few jobs left that can reliably provide a middle-class salary without a college degree.
On May 6 of this year, the first licensed self-driving truck, an 18-wheeler built by Daimler, hit the Nevada highway to kick off a 10-year testing program. It works with ordinary radar and cameras. It doesn’t even need the really cool laser stuff that makes the Google driverless car work.
Machine-driven trucks don’t need sleep, don’t drink and drive, don’t text and drive, don’t need health insurance and don’t need to be paid. They pay relentless attention only to driving.
We’ve been hearing a lot about “a world without work” and the “post-work society.” Most Americans are going to spend their lives cobbling together part-time and piecemeal work. The number of full-time jobs is in decline, permanently.
The new technology disruptions are different from when we moved from whale oil to coal to petroleum, or replaced horses with cars. Human labor is increasingly less necessary, or unnecessary.
The year I was born, America’s single largest employer was AT&T. It had more employees than the combined current workforces of Microsoft, Apple, Google, Exxon, Chevron and the Berkshire Hathaway empire combined.
Americans are noticing. Americans are upset. Millions are feeling betrayed. It’s just starting.
Cutting through the clouds is a good, big idea. In fact, BIG is one of the names it goes by.
Michael Miller (mmillercolumn@gmail.com) has worked in state and local government. He lives in New Hyde Park.
